Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?
One-OffUS PoliticsGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 68.1%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 11, 25, 4:48 PM UTCFeb 3, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran strike US soil this year?
Manifold MarketsWill USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIsrael military action against Lebanon on?
PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketRules
This question is about civilian deaths due to state sponsored attacks only.
- Freelance terrorist attacks do not count unless found to have been directed and funded/equipped by a foreign government.
- The deaths need not however be directly due to conventional military operations, e.g. deaths due to covert Chinese government sabotage of US civilian infrastructure would count.
