Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 93.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 6, 25, 8:12 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 8:08 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
Manifold MarketsWide acceptance of Lab Leak hypothesis for COVID only within 3 months of Fauci passing away
Manifold MarketsVaccination program for Classical Swine Fever (Hog Cholera) in a Nordic Country before Christmas Eve 2029?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
LimitlessRules
The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/
- This market will resolve Yes if, before 2028, Spanish authorities conclude that this outbreak of African swine fever most likely came from a leak from a Spanish lab.
- Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this market to resolve Yes.
- If the outbreak is determined to be caused by foreign actors (e.g., biowarfare from another country), this market will resolve No. Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple authorities scenario clarification:
- If MAPA/EUVET scientists conclude it's likely a lab leak → resolves YES
