Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Crime & JusticeOne-OffHealth & Medicine
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60%
Forecasters
102
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 23, 12:45 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
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Manifold MarketsIf the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic lab leak by which date?
LimitlessRules
Here is the market in question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory)I've tried to make it clear that I'm only going to resolve it once there's overwhelming evidence in one direction or another, no more serious concerns about relevant evidence being hidden, I'll talk to experts, etc. That said, it still ultimately comes down to my personal opinion, and, very reasonably, some people don't feel fully comfortable trusting that on such a controversial and politically charged topic.
- So, after that market resolves, I'll post a poll about whether Manifold users agree with the decision.
- (Alt accounts are ignored, and moderators count for 5x the votes of others.
- I don't get a vote myself.) If at least 10% of the vote disagrees, this market resolves YES.
- I will be trying to make sure that votes are an accurate representation of that user's beliefs, so as to avoid trolls who vote dishonestly.
