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Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?

Crime & JusticeOne-OffHealth & Medicine

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 60%

Forecasters

102

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Stale

Mar 31, 23, 12:45 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:00 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

Here is the market in question:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory)I've tried to make it clear that I'm only going to resolve it once there's overwhelming evidence in one direction or another, no more serious concerns about relevant evidence being hidden, I'll talk to experts, etc. That said, it still ultimately comes down to my personal opinion, and, very reasonably, some people don't feel fully comfortable trusting that on such a controversial and politically charged topic.
So, after that market resolves, I'll post a poll about whether Manifold users agree with the decision.
(Alt accounts are ignored, and moderators count for 5x the votes of others.
I don't get a vote myself.) If at least 10% of the vote disagrees, this market resolves YES.
I will be trying to make sure that votes are an accurate representation of that user's beliefs, so as to avoid trolls who vote dishonestly.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial??: Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 9, 2026.
When does Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial? resolve?: Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
How is Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Here is the market in question:

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