PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No prison time 52%-1.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$251.8
Liquidity
$42.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
26
7d Change
+8.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 5:30 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Jack Doherty Prison Time?
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Manifold MarketsLindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?
PolymarketMaduro guilty of all counts?
PolymarketIf there are 100+ inmates at alligator alcatraz will there be a prison break of 1 or more inmates by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy.
- Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
- This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals.
- If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "the named outcome."
- If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "the named outcome."
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+11.0pt80.2%
- Yes-11.0pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $17.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
- Gavin Newsom+0.5pt13%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+2.0pt50%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt34%
- R-House, R-Senate-3.0pt14%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $217.8M
- 24h Vol
- $780.3K
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-3.0pt63%
- Nithya Raman+3.0pt37%
- Total Vol
- $31.8M
- 24h Vol
- $741.9K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.6pt52.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt45.5%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt2%
+16 more outcomes
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Maduro Prison Time??
- Polymarket prices No prison time at 52% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Maduro Prison Time? resolve?
- Maduro Prison Time? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Maduro Prison Time? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy.