Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040? 39%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleDec 25, 23, 2:25 PM UTCJan 2, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Manifold MarketsWill the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiRules
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
- This market is to determine what bias, if any, exists in that market, and when it's likely to resolve.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.2K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.1K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the Covid lab leak market resolve??
- Manifold Markets prices Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040? at 39% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the Covid lab leak market resolve? resolve?
- When will the Covid lab leak market resolve? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2040.
- How is When will the Covid lab leak market resolve? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory