Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 98.6%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 23, 8:45 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWho will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":
- https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
- [link preview]I found a few problems with main COVID market including a long resolution threshold (17 years) and an inactive market creator.
- I believe the long resolution time might be the primary culprit for the YES market skew.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve as YES if clear and definitive evidence is presented by investigators of a lab leak.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? resolve?
- Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":
