Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.6%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 23, 8:45 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWho will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Wikipedia endorse the lab-leak theory for origins of COVID-19 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a model of chatGPT state lab-leak theory is the origin of covid 19 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic lab leak by which date?
LimitlessRules
This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":
- https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
- [link preview]I found a few problems with main COVID market including a long resolution threshold (17 years) and an inactive market creator.
- I believe the long resolution time might be the primary culprit for the YES market skew.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve as YES if clear and definitive evidence is presented by investigators of a lab leak.
