PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%-2.0pt
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.4K
Liquidity
$10.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.5% / 5.6%
Spread
2.1 pt
Moderate spreadComments
4
7d Change
-1.7 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 11:07 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketWill the FDA approve retatrutide?
KalshiWill Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Cremieux accidentally overdose on retatrutide by EOY2029
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
- The following do not constitute qualifying approvals: Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Approval only for export or for use outside the United States Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-5.0pt11%
- December 31, 2026-4.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $22.6K
- 24h Vol
- $18.6K
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.2pt97%
- Yes-0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.3M
- 24h Vol
- $5.6K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400098%
- Above 6000+9.0pt69%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
KALSHIHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Above 8k+9.0pt97%
- Above 7k89%
- Above 9k81%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes+3.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $759.8K
- 24h Vol
- $932.6
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- New pandemic in 2026?
- Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for FDA approves Retatrutide this year??
- Polymarket prices No at 95% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does FDA approves Retatrutide this year? resolve?
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is FDA approves Retatrutide this year? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.