PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 98%+0.0pt
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$100.7
Liquidity
$674.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.7% / 1.8%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-6.3 pts
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 11:07 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes2%
Volume trend
$101Jul 325d of dataJul 28
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Rules
Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S.
- Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs