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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Health & Medicine
  3. FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

1.0% (24h)Health & MedicineOne-Off6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 12%-0.0%
Market quality

52 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$274.6

Liquidity

$2.7K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

11.0% / 12.0%

Spread

9.1%

Wide spread
7d Change

-4.5%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Jan 12, 26, 11:09 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes12%

KalshiAlso available on Kalshi

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

11.0%6mo
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027
-11.0%17%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2028
-7.0%85%
Before Jul 1, 2028
Before Jul 1, 2028
-7.0%87%

+2 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$117.8
24h Vol$5.9
KalshiKALSHI

Rules

Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S.
  • Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
  • The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Rules

Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S.
  • Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
  • The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs