PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
June 30, 2027 12%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$17.3K
Liquidity
$33.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.5% / 4.0%
Spread
0.5 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 19, 26, 12:27 AM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiPandemic in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.
- Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-8.5pt77%
- December 15,-20.5pt62%
- November 30,-26.5pt51%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $201.8K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-0.1pt12.8%
- Gemini+2.1pt9.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 23.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 22.7%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $178.6K
- 24h Vol
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.5%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 5.6%+44.0pt91%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $197.4K
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $231.8K
- 24h Vol
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- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Anthropic lab leak by which date??
- Polymarket prices June 30, 2027 at 12% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Anthropic lab leak by which date? resolve?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is Anthropic lab leak by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.