Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.5%
Forecasters
348
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 9, 23, 4:12 PM UTCMar 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get AGI before 2028?
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PolymarketRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2027
- MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)
- This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI? as its baseline.
