Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?

Health & MedicineOne-OffPolitics US Politics5mo

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibrated

Current implied probability

No 88%

Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$43.1K

High liquidity

Bid / Ask

7.0% / 8.0%

Spread

1.0 pt

Tight spread

Market data

Updated 16 minutes ago

Dec 8, 25, 10:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes12%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure.
This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria.
An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.

Large trades

$3.8k95.0%

KALSHINo12d ago

Volume trend

$83

Jul 322d of dataJul 28

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KALSHI

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Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?

Health & MedicineOne-OffPolitics US Politics5mo

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibrated

Current implied probability

No 88%

Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$43.1K

High liquidity

Bid / Ask

7.0% / 8.0%

Spread

1.0 pt

Tight spread

Market data

Updated 16 minutes ago

Dec 8, 25, 10:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes12%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure.
This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria.
An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.

Large trades

$3.8k95.0%

KALSHINo12d ago

Volume trend

$83

Jul 322d of dataJul 28

Related Markets

What is true about the absence of Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (Add Answers)

$35.3

Kean is in a permanent vegetative state: 0%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When, where or how will Trump die?