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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Health & Medicine
  3. Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?

Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?

Health & MedicineOne-OffPoliticsUS Politics6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 6%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$447.3

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.2% / 8.9%

Spread

43.5%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Dec 8, 25, 10:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes6%

Rules

If legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire December 31, 2025.
  • Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure.
  • This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria.
  • An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.

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Rules

If legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire December 31, 2025.
  • Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure.
  • This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria.
  • An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.