US announces military base in Israel in 2026?
0.3 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 96%
No 96%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$10.7K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$588.6
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Jul 1, 26, 8:58 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes.
- For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
- A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity.
- Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
