Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
BaseCorporate ActionsOne-OffUS PoliticsChinaTechAIGeopolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 3:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNeither by close date 92%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
38
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 11, 26, 6:48 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market asks: Which happens first – a Chinese full-scale military invasion of Taiwan (main island or significant territory seizure) OR a U.S. military invasion/occupation of any part of Greenland OR formal U.S. acquisition/control transfer (purchase, annexation, etc.)?
- - "Invade" for Taiwan: PLA launches amphibious/air assault to seize/control territory (blockades/gray-zone ops don't count unless they escalate to boots-on-ground occupation).
- - "Invade/acquire" for Greenland: U.S. forces occupy territory OR binding agreement transfers sovereignty/control of any part (per related markets like "US acquires part of Greenland").
- - "First" = earlier confirmed start date of qualifying action (via official statements, major news consensus like Reuters/AP/BBC, or gov announcements).
- - If neither qualifies by close date → resolves to "Neither".
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Greenland basing rights clarification: Gaining control over only a U.S. military base, expanding basing rights, or renewing existing base access does not count as qualifying for the Greenland side.