PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 7%
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$6.2K
Liquidity
$89K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.8% / 6.9%
Spread
1.5%
Tight spread7d Change
+0.4%
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 11:12 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes7%
Large trades
$6.9k92.8%POLYMARKETNoth25d ago
POLYMARKETNoth25d ago$1.1k88.2%POLYMARKETNogdyhv7d ago
POLYMARKETNogdyhv7d ago$4.7k93.3%POLYMARKETNo0xrc11d ago
POLYMARKETNo0xrc11d ago$4.7k93.3%POLYMARKETNo0xrc11d ago
POLYMARKETNo0xrc11d ago$5.9k93.9%POLYMARKETNojin515d ago
POLYMARKETNojin515d ago$44.9k93.9%POLYMARKETNoD42620d ago
POLYMARKETNoD42620d agoVolume trend
$6.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.