If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsChina2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.8%
Forecasters
60
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingDec 10, 23, 12:03 PM UTCFeb 1, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
War as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program is "A state-based conflict or dyad which reaches at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a specific calendar year"
- This will resolve YES for any war in which China and the USA are directly and kinetically involved on opposing sides.
- "Wins in 2024" refers to the 2024 presidential election.
- If Trump loses, this market will be refunded.
- Sister market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Symmetry/if-joe-biden-wins-in-2024-will-a-wa)
