Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 17, 2026, 3:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 15%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleFeb 25, 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes15%
Volume trend
$331Jul 162d of dataJul 17
Related Markets
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$26.9KYes: 4%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
$1.3KChina invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
$970.9Yes: 74%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
$539.9Yes: 10%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETIf Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?
$517Yes: 6.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
$32.8Yes: 37.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.NewsPolymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jabBlockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.