Will the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
GeopoliticsOne-OffTechChina
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.2%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJul 13, 26, 9:29 AM UTCJan 1, 50, 10:26 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the United States government has organized, funded, or directly participated in a large-scale airlift of semiconductors or semiconductor wafers from Taiwan in response to a Chinese blockade, attempted blockade, or imminent blockade before January 1st 2050.
- “Large-scale airlift” means an exceptional evacuation effort involving multiple dedicated flights or a clearly coordinated operation intended to move a substantial quantity of strategically important chips out of Taiwan.
- Routine commercial shipments, isolated cargo flights, personnel evacuations carrying incidental chip cargo, or unconfirmed contingency plans do not count.
- A “blockade” includes a sustained Chinese military or coercive operation that materially restricts maritime or air access to Taiwan, even if China describes it using different terminology.
- A brief military exercise or temporary shipping disruption does not count unless reliable evidence indicates it functioned as an actual blockade.
- Evidence should come from credible reporting, official statements, flight or shipping records, company disclosures, or other independently verifiable sources.