Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.5%
Forecasters
68
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 10:33 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
PolymarketWill China blockade Taiwan during 2026?
FutuurIf Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
Manifold MarketsWill China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)
Manifold MarketsWill China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41139) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur:
- Chine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.
- China conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.
- Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.