Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 58.9% as of October 19, 2026.

When does Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030? resolve?

Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2032.

How is Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050/#comment-98618

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POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 22-1.5pt94%
• October 2492%
• October 28+1.0pt88%

+17 more outcomes

Total Vol

$17.2M

24h Vol

$802.7K

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 21+0.7pt98%
• October 31+2.0pt88%
• November 15-1.0pt71%

+26 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

• No Hormuz Agreement-8.3pt87.1%
• D+7.0pt8.9%
• R+1.9pt4%

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31+4.0pt62%
• December 31+3.8pt39%
• November 30+7.0pt27%

+20 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

• No Hormuz Agreement-7.2pt83.2%
• D+7.3pt11.9%
• R+1.3pt5%

KALSHI

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• Transgender+2.0pt98.5%
• Healthcare+3.0pt97.5%
• Farm / Farmer+2.0pt

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