At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031
CustomHealth & MedicineChinaGeopolitics5yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.7%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 4, 23, 9:19 PM UTCJan 2, 32, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Based on western media reports.
- YES if this is confirmed any time through EOY 2031.
- They must be cumulative 100k at one time, not 10k/year for 10 years which each individually go elsewhere or return before EOY.
- This is about the total refugees in the US being at least 100k at a point in time.
- They must be people who were citizens of Taiwan as of 2023 or later (before the initiation of any war/conflict between the countries).
- They must have reached US territory (mainland, ak/hi, or other controlled territory such as guam, military bases, or other land which is controlled by the US) any time (separately or together) through the due date. i.e. they cannot be Thai refugees which pass through Taiwan on the way to the US.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031 resolve?
- At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2032.
- How is At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on western media reports.