Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolitics
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 23%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$23.5
Liquidity
$649.4
Low liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 31.0%
Spread
106.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes23%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that at least some territory on the Chagos Islands will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of any of the Chagos Archipelago from either the United Kingdom or Mauritius to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
- Basing rights, military leases, or access agreements alone do not constitute sovereignty transfer.
- An official announcement made by the United States and either the United Kingdom or Mauritius that territory within the Chagos Archipelago will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur or if such announcement is pending ratification, parliamentary approval, or other conditional legislative steps.
- Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.