Will a Democratic Senator say something positive about Trump's death within 24 hours of it happening?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.9%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 23, 26, 12:04 AM UTCNov 23, 28, 1:02 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWill Texas elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 14 Democratic Representatives?
Manifold MarketsWill Ohio elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 4 Democratic Representatives?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRules
A more expansive version of https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-a-democratic-senator-say-or-po.
- "Say" includes tweeting or posting on social media platforms.
- Resolves YES IF within 24 hours of Trump's death, a Democratic Senator (caucuses with Dems) posts or says something positive about Trump's death.
- In the event of an ambiguous situation, I will attempt to resolve as best as possible and may resolve to a percent (I'll try and avoid this).
- I will not trade on this market.
- (I'll extend the close date until Trump's death.)
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Democratic Senator say something positive about Trump's death within 24 hours of it happening??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a Democratic Senator say something positive about Trump's death within 24 hours of it happening? resolve?
- Will a Democratic Senator say something positive about Trump's death within 24 hours of it happening? is scheduled to resolve on November 23, 2028.
- How is Will a Democratic Senator say something positive about Trump's death within 24 hours of it happening? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A more expansive version of https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-a-democratic-senator-say-or-po.