Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?
2.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Texas 35.1%+2.0ptLeader of 16 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$56.4K
Liquidity
$55.4K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Sep 23, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If Mississippi is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Election CommissionMississippi Secretary of StateLouisiana Secretary of StateMontana Secretary of StateSouth Carolina State Election CommissionKansas Secretary of StateTexas Secretary of StateIowa Secretary of StateAlaska Division of Electionsthe Florida Division of ElectionsOhio Secretary of StateNorth Carolina State Board of ElectionsGeorgia Secretary of StateMichigan Secretary of StateNew Hampshire Secretary of StateMinnesota Secretary of StateVirginia Department of Elections
- A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Kamala Harris's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results.
- The margin is negative where Harris won.
- A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party).
- Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.
- Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority.
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- Texas Senate winner?
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- Ohio Senate winner?
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- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Texas at 35.1% as of September 25, 2026.
- When does Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? resolve?
- Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2027.
- How is Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Mississippi is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.