Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
11.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Florida 36.5%+11.0ptLeader of 20 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$159.1K
Liquidity
$129.9K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 23, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If Massachusetts is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Election CommissionMassachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections DivisionDelaware Department of ElectionsOregon Secretary of State, Elections DivisionRhode Island Board of ElectionsColorado Secretary of StateIllinois State Board of ElectionsMaine Secretary of State, Division of ElectionsNew Mexico Secretary of State, Elections DivisionNew Jersey Division of ElectionsVirginia Department of ElectionsMinnesota Secretary of StateNew Hampshire Secretary of StateMichigan Secretary of StateGeorgia Secretary of StateNorth Carolina State Board of ElectionsOhio Secretary of Statethe Florida Division of ElectionsAlaska Division of ElectionsIowa Secretary of StateTexas Secretary of State
- A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Donald Trump's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results.
- The margin is negative where Trump won.
- A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Republican.
- Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.
- Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Florida at 36.5% as of September 25, 2026.
- When does Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? resolve?
- Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2027.
- How is Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Massachusetts is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.