Will Texas elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 14 Democratic Representatives?
4.2 pts (24h)Politics8dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastDem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps 36.3%+4.2ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+4.2 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleFeb 1, 26, 2:51 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves based on these underlying markets:
- Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
- How many Republican Representatives will Texas elect in 2026?
- Threshold conversion: Texas has 38 House seats. "At least 14 Democratic Representatives" is equivalent to "at most 24 Republican Representatives" in the underlying market.
- Outcome Senate market Reps market (R version) the named outcome YES 0-8 through 24 the named outcome YES 25 through 34-38 the named outcome NO 0-8 through 24 the named outcome NO 25 through 34-38
