Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 24, 26, 2:35 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
KalshiWhen will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?
KalshiWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWill Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
KalshiTrump announces Canada tariff decrease by which date?
PolymarketUS effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if President Trump imposes a 100% tariff on the majority of all Canadian imports.
- Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government announcements, executive orders, or proclamations published on the White House website or Federal Register.
- The tariff must be formally implemented and take effect to resolve YES.
- If Trump threatens but does not implement a 100% tariff, or implements a rate below 100%, the market resolves NO.
- On January 24, 2026, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports if Canada makes a trade deal with China.