Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleJan 24, 26, 2:35 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if President Trump imposes a 100% tariff on the majority of all Canadian imports.
- Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government announcements, executive orders, or proclamations published on the White House website or Federal Register.
- The tariff must be formally implemented and take effect to resolve YES.
- If Trump threatens but does not implement a 100% tariff, or implements a rate below 100%, the market resolves NO.
- On January 24, 2026, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports if Canada makes a trade deal with China.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump tariff Canada 100%?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump tariff Canada 100% resolve?
- Will Trump tariff Canada 100% is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Trump tariff Canada 100% settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria