KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 4:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2027 · —
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Stored priceBefore Jan 1, 2027 50%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$0
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 7:15 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2027
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only reporting from the White House or the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The market resolves on signing or publication of the qualifying instrument, not on its effective date. Counts as Yes: A flat rate cut on all or any defined subset of covered Canadian aluminum articles, including reinstatement of the August 2026 framework at 25% A tariff-rate quota under which in-quota Canadian aluminum enters below 50% A country exemption or North American metals arrangement that lowers or removes the duty on Canadian aluminum Does NOT count: The July 20, 2026 primary-aluminum onshoring incentive (approved firms importing at half the rate) or any expansion of it Commerce's investment-commitment program allowing individual Canadian or Mexican producers to apply for a 25% rate Individual importer exclusions under the Commerce exclusion process Changes to derivative aluminum products only, with the base article rate unchanged Changes to US-content deductions or smelt-and-cast rules that leave the headline rate at 50% Court rulings enjoining or vacating the tariff Framework agreements, announcements, or press statements without a signed legal instrument
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
