Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
1.0 pts (24h)FedOne-Off1moForecastExLimited verified dataCurrent implied probabilityYes 54%
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$12.7K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastEx🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Fed Decision October 28 2026.
- Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)? Price reflects the latest available ForecastEx exchange evidence.
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt54.5%
- No change-6.0pt43.6%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.7M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Hike 25bps+4.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-6.0pt43.7%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt97.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.3pt2.1%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt0%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt66%
- No change-1.0pt30.1%
- 25 bps decrease1.9%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-2.0pt59.4%
- 3 (75 bps)+4.9pt22.8%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.0pt16.8%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-1.2pt94%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.0pt5%
- Exactly 2 cuts+0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in September
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Number of rate hikes in 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)??
- ForecastEx prices Yes at 54% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)? resolve?
- Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)? is scheduled to resolve on October 28, 2026.
- How is Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)? settled?
- ForecastEx settles this market as follows: Fed Decision October 28 2026.