KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above 5% · —
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Stored price
Above 8% 73%Market line of 11 lines
Above 8% 73%Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$808.3
Open interest
$5.6K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Above 5%Spread
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Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 8:45 PM UTCOct 29, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 5%
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
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KalshiU.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
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PolymarketRules
If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
Rules for each outcome
- Above 5%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 7%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 8%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 9%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 10%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 13%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 13%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 12%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 12%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 11%
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 11%, then the market resolves to Yes.