KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 5% 96%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 8:45 PMOct 29, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above 5% at 96% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 resolve?
- US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 is scheduled to resolve on October 29, 2026.
- How is US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
