When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada?
Trade PolicyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionAwaiting resolution
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 75%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2027 75%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$36
Open interest
$4.3K
Medium open interestMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 21, 26, 6:30 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before Oct 1, 2026Awaiting result
Before close: 2% ·
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action imposing a new tariff or increasing an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Any qualifying presidential action must be taken personally during the specified time period and explicitly address the topic in its operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration. A specified future effective date qualifies. An agency-only notice, a threat or remark without formal presidential action, or the scheduled activation or expiry of a previously ordered measure does NOT count. Publication or documentation by a Source Agency of the qualifying action personally signed, issued, or promulgated by Trump constitutes its official announcement by Trump; no separate speech or social-media statement is required.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action imposing a new tariff or increasing an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action imposing a new tariff or increasing an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action imposing a new tariff or increasing an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action imposing a new tariff or increasing an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.