Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 86.9%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 24, 24, 1:57 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market predicts whether the U.S. federal government will approve and distribute broad-based economic stimulus checks to the general population during the 2026 calendar year.
- These payments should be similar to those distributed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, where most citizens and legal residents received direct payments, primarily subject to income limits.
- The following will not be considered as stimulus for this market:
- Regular Social Security payments
- Existing tax credits
- Assistance programs targeted at limited groups (such as veterans or farmers)
