Will the south korean fertility rate increase in 2026?
One-OffSociety & CultureHealth & MedicineMacro & Economy2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88.4%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 27, 25, 4:57 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if South Korea's total fertility rate (children per woman) increases in 2026 compared to 2025.
- Resolution will be based on official data from Statistics Korea, published in early 2027.
- The fertility rate is measured as the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime based on age-specific birth rates for that calendar year.
- South Korea's fertility rate rose to 0.75 children per woman in 2024 from 0.72 in 2023, after eight consecutive years of decline from 1.24 in 2015.
- The rate reached 0.82 in the first quarter of 2025, up from 0.77 the year before, and rose to 0.85 in September 2025.