Will the South Korean total fertility rate exceed 2.0 at any point before 2051?
One-OffMacro & EconomyManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 12:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 86.1%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 2, 23, 2:48 AM UTCJan 1, 51, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This question refers to the area held currently (12/1/2023) by the South Korean state.
- By "total fertility rate" I mean "children born per woman." If advances in technology make that statistic meaningless (e.g., artificial wombs are created) AND most reputable sources switch to tracking "children born per person" or some variant instead, I will also resolve this question to "yes" if "children born per person" exceeds 1.
- I will use the CIA world factbook (or other authoritative source, pending agreement in comments) to determine resolution.
- https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/about/archives/2021/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison
