Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
FedOne-OffInflationHealth & MedicineEconomyMacro & Economy3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.6%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 27, 23, 7:38 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
"unemployment" refers to the monthly unemployment rate published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The highest ever recorded monthly US unemployment rate was in April 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 14.7%.
- During the Great Depression, the annual US unemployment rate (monthly was is not available) got as high as 24.9% in 1933 (BLS).
- See data from BLS or St Louis Fed below:
- (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1cpNO&width=670&height=475)Will the United States have an unemployment rate of 25% or more in any month before the end of this decade?
- @/cash/will-us-unemployment-be-10-or-more
