Current community forecast
No 77%
Forecasters
175
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleMay 7, 23, 2:00 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- Update 2023-12-06: I appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:
- This only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate.
- If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts.
- I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.
