Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030? resolve?

Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

How is Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE to be used as a resolution source.

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KALSHI

Recession this year?

• No97.5%
• Yes2.5%

Total Vol

$3.8M

24h Vol

$37.3K

KALSHI

US real GDP growth in 2026?

• 2.1% to 2.5%+10.7pt81.9%
• 1.6% to 2.0%-7.9pt12.8%
• 3.1% to 3.5%1.6%

POLYMARKET

US recession by end of 2026?

• No-1.0pt93%
• Yes+1.0pt7%

Total Vol

$2.4M

24h Vol

$17.4K

KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.1%98.5%
• Above 3.2%98.5%

KALSHI

Australia Nominal GDP in 2026

• Above $1.7 trillion94.5%
• Above $1.8 trillion92.5%
• Above $1.6 trillion98%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in December

• Above 3.0%96.5%
• Above 3.1%-1.0pt94.5%
• Above 3.3%94.5%

• CPI in October
• Recession in 2027?
• CPI in December
• Unemployment in October
• Core CPI YoY in November
• China unemployment rate in October
• Core CPI in October
• 2026: Trump's bad year?
• US recession by end of 2027?
• CPI in November
• 2026: Trump's dream year?
• Core CPI in November