Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?
Trade PolicyOne-OffEntertainmentPoliticsElection2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jul 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Jul 1, 2027 51.5%
Before Jul 1, 2027 51.5%Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$7.9K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jul 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
Sep 2, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jul 1, 2027
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KalshiRules
If a federal film or television production tax credit has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must expressly create a tax credit against federal tax liability for qualified film or television production. A deduction, expensing or depreciation provision, tariff, grant, appropriation, state or local incentive, proposal, or administrative action without qualifying federal law does NOT qualify. The legislation must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. An expired presidential pocket veto does NOT qualify. The credit need not take effect before the deadline if the law becomes law within the specified period.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If a federal film or television production tax credit has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If a federal film or television production tax credit has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.