Will the U.S. lower its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods before November 2026?
Trade PolicyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 26, 6:33 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-10-31 23:59 US Eastern, the United States government formally LOWERS its 50% tariff rate on Canadian goods. **What counts (YES):** a Presidential Proclamation, Executive Order, or agency notice published on federalregister.gov (or posted on whitehouse.gov and subsequently published) that either (a) reduces the ad valorem duty rate below 50% for any product category covered by the three Presidential Proclamations signed 2026-07-20, or (b) suspends, pauses, or terminates those proclamations in whole or in part.
- The reduction must be *effective* on or before 2026-10-31, not merely announced as a future intention. **What does NOT count (NO):** a framework/handshake announcement with no published legal instrument; a narrow product-specific exclusion granted to individual importers or individual HTS lines under an exclusion process; tariff changes affecting countries other than Canada; a court injunction (this market is about executive action, not litigation); or Canada changing its own retaliatory tariffs. **Oracle:** federalregister.gov and whitehouse.gov presidential-actions.
- If ambiguous, the Federal Register document text governs.
- Background: Trump signed three proclamations on 2026-07-20 imposing additional 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian goods, effective 2026-08-22 after a delay.
- Trade talks collapsed; PM Carney announced retaliatory tariffs of 15-50% on ~$27.6B of US goods effective 2026-09-08.
- US midterms are 2026-11-03.
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- $5.5K
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- September 30+3.0pt13%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. lower its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods before November 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. lower its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods before November 2026? resolve?
- Will the U.S. lower its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods before November 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Will the U.S. lower its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods before November 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-10-31 23:59 US Eastern, the United States government formally LOWERS its 50% tariff rate on Canadian goods. **What counts (YES):** a Presidential Proclamation, Executive Order, or agency notice published on federalregister.gov (or posted on whitehouse.gov and subsequently published) that either (a) reduces the ad valorem duty rate below 50% for any product category covered by the three Presidential Proclamations signed 2026-07-20, or (b) suspends, pauses, or terminates those proclamations in whole or in part.