Will the U.S. remove its 25% tariffs on most Brazilian goods by the end of 2026?
Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsLatin America2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 81.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 17, 26, 4:14 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market is about the U.S. 25% tariff on most imports from Brazil announced in July 2026 under Section 301.
- CNBC described the tariff as taking effect on July 22, 2026, with exemptions for some goods such as beef, orange juice, aircraft and parts, and energy products.
- Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the U.S. has officially ended, suspended, or reduced this 25% Section 301 tariff so that it no longer applies to most Brazilian goods.
- Resolves NO if, on December 31, 2026, the 25% tariff is still in effect for most Brazilian goods.
- Small product-specific exemptions do not count unless the tariff is broadly removed, suspended, or reduced for most Brazilian goods.
