PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 2:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
December 31, 14%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 15.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
5
7d Change
+3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jan 24, 26, 5:35 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect?
KalshiUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWill Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
KalshiWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiWill the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump tariff Canada 100%
Manifold MarketsRules
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through.
- (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended.
- Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.7K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+27.0pt94%
- No6%
- Total Vol
- $6.6K
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition83.2%
- $10 billion to $99 billion5%
- $300 billion to $599 billion4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 31+1.0pt56%
- September 30-14.0pt9%
- September 15-0.8pt1%
+1 more outcomes
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31, at 14% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date? resolve?
- Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through.