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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

0.9% (24h)One-OffTrade PolicyPoliticsUS PoliticsChina18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 4%-0.0%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$205.4

Liquidity

$8.8K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

3.3% / 5.6%

Spread

69.7%

Wide spread
7d Change

-0.1%

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Jan 24, 26, 5:39 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes4%

Rules

On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through.

Polymarket
  • (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
  • This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended.
  • Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,919.85+2.36%EthereumETH$1,660.63+1.78%SolanaSOL$65.42+2.62%

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Active in these topics

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Rules

On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through.

Polymarket
  • (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
  • This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended.
  • Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify.