KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2028 21%
Before Jan 1, 2028 21%Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$240.6
Open interest
$1.5K
Low open interestBid / Ask
13.0% / 19.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 4:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
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Manifold MarketsCopper price on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Register
- A qualifying restriction is an additional duty above 0%, tariff-rate quota, absolute quota, or other binding quantitative import limit. Coverage through a successor or broader provision qualifies only if it fully encompasses the target line. Country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, and other generally applicable conditions do not disqualify coverage, but coverage limited to a product or end-use subset of the line does. The restriction must take effect; merely signing or issuing an instrument with a later effective date does not qualify until that date. Only reporting from the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.