Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.7%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 47 minutes ago
LaggingOct 5, 26, 10:32 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2030 (12:00 AM UTC), Russian military forces launch a physical invasion of the sovereign land territory of the United Kingdom (Great Britain and Northern Ireland).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, an "invasion" is defined as:
- The entry of Russian armed forces (regular land, sea, or air combat troops) onto UK land territory with hostile intent, for combat, or for the purpose of military occupation.
- The event must be officially recognized or reported as an invasion, armed incursion, or hostile military landing on UK soil by the UK Government, the United Nations, or at least three major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, Bloomberg).