FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
December 31 20%Leader of 3 outcomes
December 31 20%Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquidityTraders
16
Comments
1
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
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PolymarketRules
This event predicts whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to act as the de facto leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran at any point between the creation of this event and the date specified in each market (the “Event Period”).
- For this event, Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to have ceased to be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses the ability to exercise the authority associated with the country’s supreme leadership position.
- If Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to act as the de facto leader of Iran at any time before the deadline of a given market, that market will resolve to “Yes”.
- If he remains the de facto leader through that deadline, the market will resolve to “No”.
- An official announcement confirming Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation, removal, or loss of authority will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if the effective date of the change occurs later.
- Temporary absences, short-term incapacitation, or delegation of authority that does not permanently remove him from leadership will not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 26%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Iran leadership change by...? · Dec 31 13%