FutuurVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 23%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquidityTraders
16
Comments
1
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiAl Nassr vs Abha
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 29%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Iran leadership change by...? · Dec 31 14%
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $423K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $285.8K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by which date??
- Futuur prices December 31 at 23% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Iran leadership change by which date? resolve?
- Iran leadership change by which date? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- Where else is Iran leadership change by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Manifold Markets.