Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
4.2 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East28d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
November 30 · —
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Stored reference
November 30 8%Leader of 4 outcomes
November 30 8%Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$629.5
Liquidity
$28.2K
High liquidityOpen interest
$2.4K
Bid / Ask
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November 30Spread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Aug 5, 26, 12:26 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
October 31Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · November 30
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
- "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
- Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
- An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.