PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAugust 31 6%+0.3%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$40.9K
Liquidity
$36.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.7% / 6.6%
Spread
15.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 1:15 AMAug 31, 26, 11:55 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
August 316%
Volume trend
$40.9kJul 216d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
- Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
- An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
- If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.