Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
0.1 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 5%Leader of 5 outcomes
December 31 5%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$20.9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$2.1K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 1:15 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
July 31Lost
October 31Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Market depth · December 31
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
- Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
- An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
- If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.