In what year will the next US recession begin?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for In what year will the next US recession begin??

Manifold Markets prices 2027 at 47% as of October 27, 2026.

When does In what year will the next US recession begin? resolve?

In what year will the next US recession begin? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.

How is In what year will the next US recession begin? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.

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KALSHI

Recession this year?

• No97.5%
• Yes2.5%

Total Vol

$3.8M

24h Vol

$24.4K

KALSHI

Core CPI YoY in November

• Above 2.0%98.5%
• Above 2.2%98.5%
• Above 2.3%98.5%

KALSHI

Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?

• No63%
• Yes+5.0pt37%

Total Vol

$35.8K

24h Vol

$9.9K

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

• No79.5%
• Yes+1.0pt20.5%

Total Vol

$758.7K

24h Vol

$8.5K

KALSHI

Russia unemployment rate in September

• Above 2.0%+8.0pt49.5%
• Above 1.9%77.5%
• Above 2.1%-19.0pt44.5%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in December

• Above 3.0%96.5%
• Above 3.1%95.5%
• Above 3.3%94.5%

• CPI YoY in November
• Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
• CPI in October
• US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)
• Core CPI YoY in December
• CPI in November
• October Unemployment Rate
• Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• US recession by end of 2026?
• Core CPI in November
• Unemployment in October