Which party will win the Presidency? Will there be a US recession between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive)?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Which party will win the Presidency? Will there be a US recession between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive)??

Manifold Markets prices Republicans, Recession at 69.7% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Which party will win the Presidency? Will there be a US recession between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive)? resolve?

Which party will win the Presidency? Will there be a US recession between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive)? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2029.

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KALSHI

October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

• U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k16%
• U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k+2.0pt14%
• U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above3.5%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$20.5K

24h Vol

$19.4K

KALSHI

CPI YoY in December

• Above 3.0%96.5%
• Above 3.1%95.5%
• Above 3.3%94.5%

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

• No79.5%
• Yes-1.0pt20.5%

Total Vol

$737.5K

24h Vol

$5.2K

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%+1.0pt98.5%
• Above 0.0%98.5%
• Above 0.1%89.5%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.3%97.5%
• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.1%98.5%

POLYMARKET

US recession by end of 2026?

• No+1.0pt92.1%
• Yes-1.0pt7.9%

Total Vol

$2.3M

24h Vol

$3.3K

• CPI in November
• China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
• Core CPI YoY in December
• US economic state at the end of 2026?
• CPI in December
• US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026
• Mexico unemployment rate in October
• US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• China Annual GDP Growth 2026
• Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)
• Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• China unemployment rate in October