Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.5%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 1, 26, 11:29 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2026?
KalshiWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 0.5% in Q4 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if the official annual real GDP growth rate for Mexico in the calendar year 2026 is reported as 1.4% or higher.
- It resolves to "No" otherwise.
- The primary source for resolution will be the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) via their official press releases or the Banco de México (Banxico).
- Specifically, the market will resolve based on the final annual growth figure for 2026 as reported in early 2027.
- If preliminary data is used, the market will resolve once the annual growth estimate is finalized by these institutions.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+13.0pt65.7%
- No change-13.0pt33.3%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $113.7M
- 24h Vol
- $5.3M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $817.3K
- 24h Vol
- $96.1K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+7.0pt73%
- September Meeting+11.0pt65%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.5pt76%
- No-1.5pt24%
- Total Vol
- $8.8M
- 24h Vol
- $60.9K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $465.7K
- 24h Vol
- $40.4K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 1 (25 bps)-5.0pt44.8%
- 2 (50 bps)+3.5pt25.7%
- 0 (0 bps)22.9%
+3 more outcomes
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI core in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
- CPI core month-over-month in Aug 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- How high will inflation get this year?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
- CPI-U index in August
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026? resolve?
- Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria