Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.6%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 48 minutes ago
LaggingJan 2, 26, 7:38 AM UTCJan 4, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2026?
KalshiWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 0.5% in Q4 2026?
ForecastExRules
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.2M
- 24h Vol
- $6.3M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $772.5K
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $449.8K
- 24h Vol
- $31.7K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.1K
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt49.5%
- Overheating+13.7pt45.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $94.6K
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026 resolve?
- Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 4, 2027.
- How is Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026