Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomy3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 64.8%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 7, 24, 10:17 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This question will be resolved based on official U.S. economic data, focusing specifically on annual real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation).
- The question will resolve as “Yes” if real GDP growth for any full calendar year exceeds 5% between the years 2024 and 2029, inclusive.
- Otherwise, it will resolve as “No” if no such year exhibits this level of growth by the end of 2029.
- Specific Criteria
- Data Source:
- • The resolution will use official data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) or another recognized authoritative economic body.
